Israel has recently declared a unilateral ceasefire, bringing to an end one of its bloodiest military incursions into the Gaza strip. As the dust settles, the scale of the devastation becomes clear: over 1,300 Palestinians lie dead, with estimates of the number wounded topping 5000. Much of Gaza’s infrastructure lies in ruins, with power stations, water networks and sewage systems destroyed; homes, mosques and even schools have been reduced to rubble. According to the UN, the cost of rebuilding Gaza could run into billions of dollars.
The most obvious victims of this war (though to call such a one-sided conflict a war seems in bad taste) are the people of Gaza, whose terrible plight is difficult to imagine.
Though it would be an insult to compare the level of suffering of the people of Gaza to that of the people of Sderot, the situation for the residents of Israel’s border towns should not be ignored. For them too, things have become highly unpleasant: three of their number have been killed, and their lives have been blighted by the constant threat of rocket-fire.
But what of Hamas and the Israeli ruling class? And for that matter, where does this leave the interests of US imperialism?
Defeat for Hamas
Despite official proclamations of a "popular victory", Hamas has been severely weakened. Although Israel failed to completely destroy them, many of their best cadres have been killed, including members of the so-called ‘Iran unit’, composed of a hundred or so guerrilla fighters trained by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. In marked contrast, Israel suffered no real military damage, losing a mere ten soldiers.
Even Israel’s failure to recover Gilad Shalit, the captured Israeli soldier, is of secondary importance – it will not be long before his release is negotiated. When Israel’s bombardment was at its fiercest, Hamas was conducting secret negotiations with Israel (via Egyptian mediation), and when Israel declared a unilateral ceasefire, Hamas didn’t take long to declare one of their own.
Absurd Claim of Victory
Despite Hamas’ absurd claim of victory, this defeat leaves them in a position where they will be forced to accept a deal largely on Israel’s terms. It is instructive that hardly anyone turned up to the victory parade organised by Hamas in Gaza City.
Indeed, the deal being negotiated between Hamas and Egypt is tantamount to a surrender by the organisation. As Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff write in Haaretz:
"The Egyptian proposal is mostly bad for Hamas. It doesn’t let the organization bring the Palestinian public any political achievement that would justify the blood that has been spilled, and even forces on it the return of the Palestinian Authority to Gaza, in the form of its renewed presence at the Rafah crossing (as a condition for its reopening).
"Once the cease-fire is reached, the IDF will withdraw from the positions it captured in Gaza, and only then will the two sides begin to discuss the opening of border crossings and removal of the blockade, which was the reason Hamas gave for waging war. The most that Cairo is offering is a timetable for the opening of the crossing points, and even that depends on negotiations due to begin after the cease-fire is reached, and it’s tough to know how or when they will end."
So Hamas is prepared to accept its border crossings being under the control of the Palestinian Authority, which has many times shown itself prepared to do Israel’s dirty work in policing the Palestinian masses, and even foreign powers: according to a report in al-Sharq al-Awsat, Hamas will accept the crossings being monitored by ‘international observers’. Israel will insist on preventing weapons being taken into Gaza, and Hamas will be in no position to oppose this.
So, instead of self-determination, Hamas is preparing to settle for being regulated (and effectively disarmed) by the occupier and its stooges. Why? Because they want to be seen as ‘responsible’ by the imperialists. Its attacks on Sderot and other towns, designed to increase its bargaining power, are mere pin-pricks on the Israeli state.
