If anyone had suggested a few years ago, that Ireland would be in a deep recession, that Waterford Crystal would be occupied, that Labour would be ahead of Fianna Fáil in the polls and that we would be more or less on the brink of a one day general strike, they would have been told to go and put some water in the glass to help wash down the whiskey. The whole place was booming, houses popping up everywhere, more motorways than spaghetti junction and thousands of people returning home from abroad to join the boom.
Now, that seems like another age. Unemployment is racing towards 400,000 and, despite all the bail outs and even formal nationalisations of the banks, the economy is spiralling out of control. Tax revenues fell by 24% in the year to January. The economy is expected to contract by 5% this year and Cowen and Lenihan are preparing a budget that will strip public services to the bone. That combined with the pension levy (a pay cut of 3% on public sector workers earning 15,000 Euros a year and 5% for those on 25,000 Euros) is an indication that the absolute priority of the Fianna Fáil is to place the burden of the crisis entirely onto the shoulders of working people and their families.
Irish Economy
The boom years saw a huge increase in inward investment into the country. The Irish economy is intimately tied into the British economy as well as US capitalism. But this has a flip side. Ireland is also tied into the Euro zone, which means that currency fluctuations between the UK £ and the Euro have a significant effect on the economy. The fall in the value of the £ means that Irish exports are more expensive and therefore less competitive. The increase in the cost of diesel in the past period also served to increase the cost of exporting Irish foodstuffs. Ireland is relatively remote from the rest of the Euro zone and the bourgeoisie are already talking about the ‘high cost’ Irish economy. Ireland’s credit rating has been on the slide throughout the recent period, even compared to the general crisis.
Strength of the working class
All this adds up to a big bill that the Irish bourgeoisie have absolutely no intention of paying. That is what was behind the decision of the government and the bosses to pull out of the national agreement on wages. But there is one fundamental problem with that. The Irish working class has been enormously strengthened in the past period. Unemployment was relatively low and people have far more to defend and fight for than they’ve ever had in the past. This is the key factor in the current situation. The working class in undefeated and the unions are intact. As we have explained recently the leaders of ICTU and its affiliated unions are under enormous pressure. 200,000 people marched through Dublin on the 21st February and the votes that came in from the various unions balloting for strike action on March 30th were massively in favour of action.
Ireland is very different to what it was like even in the relatively recent past. There have been big social changes as well. But the key is this, the Irish bourgeoisie is very weak, dominated by imperialism and faced with a working class that is beginning to stand up to its full height.
Poker Game
The run up to the threatened March 30th strikes was (as we predicted) a bit like a poker game. David Begg and the other union leaders would love an agreement they can sell to the members. The bosses and the government have asked for talks and the trade union leaders have clearly seen this as an opportunity to walk into the negotiations with a big mandate from the membership.
At the same time however, Cowen and the bourgeois won’t want to give an inch unless they absolutely have to. The government are in a serious hole, they have to make the workers pay for the crisis, but they can’t afford to let the movement run out of control. The whole of Europe is ringing with workers’ anger and in many ways Ireland is the sick man.
Labour Party on the up
This anger is beginning to be channelled through the Labour Party as well. The Labour Party poll ratings are going through the roof and, despite the best endeavours of Eamon Gilmore to get the strikes called off and for the bosses to “talk to the unions,” it’s possible that the workers movement will begin to force the Labour Party ranks to the left. The agenda for this year’s party conference includes a demand for the nationalisation of the banks. The anger of the workers will no doubt be reflected in the conference to one extent or another particularly now that ICTU have called the strikes off.
30th March would have been almost a one day General Strike!
Monday March 30th would have represented a huge demonstration of worker’s anger. Hundreds of thousands would have been on strike and on the streets. Essentially it would have represented a partial one day general strike. What would that mean? Nothing would have moved, the government would be suspended in mid air. The ballot results came in thick and fast. SIPTU, the teachers, the nurses, the TEEU all voted to come out. The vote in IMPACT, the biggest public sector union was 65% in favour and the executive had to meet to consider their course of action. McLoone had to acknowledge that workers would not want to cross picket lines and would have the unions support. Even in UNITE where there is a big private sector presence the votes were on a knife edge. Even though the trade union leaders backed off from a direct confrontation, the size of the votes is an indication of the mood within the working class.
The decision to call off the action without any agreement is a grave error. You can’t turn the mood of the workers off and on like a tap. It’s likely under the current conditions that a lousy offer from Cowen and IBEC will only serve to harden the mood. On the other hand prevarication and plain old dithering will be seen as a sign of weakness. Now is the time to go out and build the movement, talk to the workers and prepare for what could easily be a big fat zero from Cowen. The bosses and Cowen have very little room to manoeuvre; that is unless the bosses are going to pay for the crisis and that is utterly ruled out in the long run. The new situation in Ireland is qualitatively different to before and the ideas of Marxism, genuine socialism that is, will increasingly gain an echo.
Where we stand…
Nationalise the banks and the major industries under the democratic control of the working class
You can’t control what you don’t own we need a democratic socialist plan of production
Nationalise Waterford Crystal and any other factory or business threatening redundancy under workers control and management.
Make the bosses pay for the crisis.
Industrial action to protect jobs, services, wages and conditions.
Not a cent off the pay, not a second on the day.
Kick the pension levy into touch. Sack Cowen and the Fianna Fáil.
No coalitions with the Tweedledum and Tweedledee parties of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. For a majority Labour Government with a socialist programme.
No collaboration with the bosses. Labour must support the workers in struggle.
