Voters in the north of Ireland have delivered their verdict on the
Stormont
Assembly. This toothless devolved body was established as part of the
so-called ‘peace process’ linked to the Good Friday Agreement. We have
explained since
its inception that it represented a scheme to share power between
representatives of the main sectarian parties more than any attempt to
solve the
problems facing ordinary working people. It could never address the
vital
problems of health, housing and education, nor the wider questions of
the border
and the national question. It did not have the power to do so. In any
case none
of the establishment parties listed above is prepared to challenge the
free
market system which lies hidden beneath the sectarian quagmire.
Nevertheless
enormous illusions were sown in this agreement. Those illusions are
gradually
being eroded by real life experience.
As we have consistently explained the Good Friday Agreement, and the
institutions of devolution associated with it, could never begin to solve the
problems facing ordinary working people no matter what their background. It was
a cruel deception, which promised peace to the communities of Catholic and
Protestant workers, but was unable to deliver. It was a lie. There has been no
peace. Sectarian beatings and killings have continued. Communities have become
increasingly divided.
Election results Turnout 68.84% Number of Seats UUP SDLP DUP Sinn Fein |
Indeed the divide between Catholics and Protestants has never been wider. The
election result itself demonstrates a further polarisation in the shape of
Paisley’s DUP becoming the main Unionist Party, while Sinn Fein overtook the
SDLP as the main Nationalist party.
This gulf was created and nurtured by British imperialism in order to divide
and rule, to protect their system in Ireland from the very real threat of united
working class action. In carving up the living body of Ireland through partition
British imperialism unleashed a "carnival of reaction" just as the great
socialist James Connolly had predicted.
Those who created this mess are utterly incapable of solving it. Instead of
peace what they have built are lots of "peace-lines" – brick walls,
iron fences and barbed wire to divide communities still further. The British and
Irish governments and the sectarian parties all represent the past, they have
nothing progressive to say about the future. The failed policies of sectarian
politicians have only served to widen the gulf into a chasm.
Temporary agreements between these sectarian politicians to share ministerial
responsibilities at Stormont could never even begin to solve the underlying
cause of this crisis. That has now been proven by five years real life
experience, although big illusions in the agreement still exist in the
population.
The reality of the last five years has been that remaining within the
straitjacket of the capitalist system, sectarian politicians and government
officials from Ireland and Britain have been trying to create a better
environment in which big business could make money, a better environment in
which to exploit Catholic and Protestant workers alike. What none of them could
do, even in a boom, because of the limits imposed by the profit system, is build
houses, hospitals and schools, create jobs or eradicate poverty pay. These
social conditions, which are an inevitable fact of life in capitalist society,
serve to fuel sectarian division, fear and hate. They are played upon and used
as propaganda weapons by sectarian politicians. The Democratic Unionist Party,
for example, has had some success with the argument ‘we’ve made all the
concessions, and we’ve got nothing in return.’ In the absence of any
improvement in their own lot, and without any real alternative on offer, it is
inevitable that such propaganda has an impact within the Protestant community.
It is not ruled out even now that some kind of unstable deal could still be
done to resurrect the Stormont assembly, though that now seems highly unlikely.
The DUP fought on a programme of renegotiating the agreement. Tony Blair and
Bertie Ahern have stated that this is ruled out. In reality the renegotiating
the DUP leaders want is the exclusion of Sinn Fein. They will demand the
complete decommissioning of all the Provisionals’ weapons, and if they comply,
the disbandment of the Provisional IRA. They will always find a further step, a
further demand. To be clear there is nothing in common between the Marxists
opposition to the Agreement based on exposing it as a sham which could solve
nothing for working class people; and the DUP’s opposition which is based on a
reactionary position of maintaining the sectarian divide.
It is unlikely that there will be any new negotiation of the agreement,
despite the vote for the DUP, or the successful implementation of the current
one. The only certainty is that no such agreement, new or old, can ever meet the
aspirations of the nationalist community for a united Ireland, nor assuage the
fears of Protestants, stirred up by the sectarian parties. Such agreements
assume the continuation of a sectarian divide. In fact they rest upon that
division. One would search in vain for any mention in these agreements of any
talk of saving jobs, or investing in public services. They consist of this or
that compromise by each sectarian party, to allow them to sit in the same room
with each other without causing uproar in their own ranks. When they eventually
sat in that room however, they all proceeded to support privatisation, and other
anti-working class measures.
In reality the national and social questions are inextricably bound together.
Capitalism can no more offer decent housing or healthcare to the people of
Ireland than it can in Britain or anywhere else. None of these problems can be
resolved on the basis of capitalism. Whatever differences the sectarian parties
have, they are all equally wedded to the market economy. It is this system,
capitalism, which lies at the heart of all the problems facing all Irish working
people.
These elections were for seats in an assembly which is currently suspended
for the fourth time in its short existence. It has not met for over a year and
yet is still consuming a staggering £30 million annually. A year ago we wrote
that the assembly’s suspension demonstrated that this so-called democracy
could be switched on and off like water from a tap in Westminster. In reality,
whilst they found it easy to switch it off they will now find it very difficult
to turn back on.
The result of the election confirms the process of polarisation taking place
in the six counties. On the one hand we have the victory of Paisley’s
anti-agreement DUP, and a strengthening of the anti-agreement elements inside
Trimble’s UUP. As a result Trimble himself is finished. His outspoken
opponents David Burnside and Jeffrey Donaldson have been elected to the assembly
and will be bolstered in their anti-agreement stance by the vote for the DUP.
Donaldson immediately called on Trimble to resign, if he were to succeed Trimble
in the leadership of the Ulster Unionists, the leaders of both unionist parties
would be against the agreement.
The smaller parties were squeezed out by a polarisation between the main
parties, particularly the DUP and Sinn Fein. Billy Hutchinson of the loyalist
PUP lost his seat while David Ervine managed to cling on to his.
The Women’s Coalition meanwhile lost their seats as a consequence of this
process of polarisation. At the same time, we have the continued rise of Sinn
Fein which, in these elections, overtook the SDLP as the main nationalist party.
According to the rules of the devolved assembly the leader of the victorious
party is meant to become First Minister, while the leader of the biggest party
from ‘the other side’ must be the deputy. This would mean Paisley and Adams!
These people, remember, have the temerity to call us utopian.
The fall in turnout at the polls, down by 4 percent on the 1998 election,
confirms the growing disillusionment with the assembly. Supporters of the
agreement in the leadership of Sinn Fein, the SDLP and the UUP point to the fact
that the agreement was endorsed by a majority of the population in a referendum.
Of course, as we pointed out at the time, the people were voting for peace. But
it was a lie. They voted for peace, that is understandable but they didn’t
vote to set up a costly assembly that never meets, is suspended by Westminster
and in any case has proven itself utterly incapable of intervening to prevent
the haemorrhaging of jobs from industry in the north over the last few years.
This impotent assembly, laid off twelve months ago, cannot begin to solve the
day to day problems of ordinary working people no matter what their background,
let alone the entire future of Ireland. Therefore its passing, if that is what
this is, should not be mourned. Without power sharing however, what does the
future hold for Sinn Fein? Adams and co. tied their fate to the assembly. The
DUP demand more concessions, yet in truth they will never be satisfied. The
devolution they support does not include the participation of Sinn Fein.
Although they favour devolution, direct rule from London will be a good second
best.
No doubt many of Sinn Fein’s supporters genuinely want a republic. Their
leaders, their strategy and their programme however can never achieve this goal.
Those who genuinely want to struggle for a republic, especially the youth, must
now look for a new path. Their thirty year campaign of ‘armed struggle’
failed and now power sharing has led them up another blind alley. The struggle
for a republic cannot be separated from the struggle against the capitalist
system. The idea that workers and youth should ‘wait till the question of the
border is solved’ has led nowhere. Eighty years of waiting is long enough. A
republic is not going to be negotiated with the southern government, British
imperialism and unionism. A Workers’ Republic, a socialist republic is the
only means of solving not only the national question but also the problems
facing workers and youth from all backgrounds.
The Belfast agreement did not represent a single step in the direction of
reuniting Ireland. Yet the nationalist political leaders sowed illusions in the
population that this was the solution to all their problems. It is not. It never
was. From the beginning this deal was a cruel trap and a deception.
In reality the establishment of the devolved body itself represented a
capitulation of that struggle by the Provisional IRA. It wasn’t even a gesture
towards Irish unity. It amounted to an acceptance of British rule and an
acceptance of partition. If the devolved assembly is reconvened it can solve
nothing and will lead to a new impasse. If they fail to resurrect it, that too
will create an impasse. In fact, leaving this or that temporary accord to one
side, all roads under capitalism lead to impasse.
The leadership of the Provisionals has clearly abandoned all hope of a united
Ireland for the foreseeable future. Their goal now is a new instalment of the
failed power-sharing scheme at Stormont. Whether or not it can be resurrected at
all now remains to be seen.
Sinn Fein has nevertheless emerged as the largest nationalist party in this
election, in fact they were only 2.2 percent behind the DUP in the share of the
vote. The SDLP have paid for the heavy emphasis of Blair and Ahern on
negotiations with Adams. Sinn Fein has rapidly transformed itself into a
respectable party and moved to the ‘centre ground.’ They have in many ways
mimicked the New Labour methods of Blair and co. with the spin doctors, the
suppression of critical thinking, and the abandonment of ideology and their
traditional policy. The Stormont elections are organised on the transferable
vote system, and Sinn Fein’s leaders actually appealed to their voters to cast
their second preference for the UUP, that is the pro-agreement unionists, to
keep the DUP out. These people tell us that it is utopian to try to unite
Catholic and Protestant workers to fight for their class interests, to fight for
socialism, yet in the charged atmosphere of Irish politics they think it is more
realistic to ask Catholics to vote for the Ulster Unionist Party!
Nevertheless Sinn Fein’s continued rise may see them overtake the SDLP
permanently but in so doing they are in reality morphing into them. The
transformation of Sinn Fein into ‘New’ Sinn Fein, and the stalemate produced
by the Stormont elections must provoke new crises, and splits between
nationalists and republicans. In these circumstances there should be ample
opportunities for the socialist element within republicanism to gain support.
All roads to a republic on the basis of capitalism have led to dead ends, the
only path left open is the struggle for socialism, for the Workers’ Republic
According to the press the British government and the establishment have been
shocked by the election results. Yet in the circumstances they were inevitable.
Understandably many question the point of holding elections to a body that is
not even going to meet. Against the background of the failure of the assembly to
solve anything, a polarisation to ‘either side’ and a fall in turnout was
always going to be the result. We explained this in March of this year:
"Elections to Stormont may indeed go ahead at the end of May, yet they
could be further postponed by yet another failure on the part of all parties to
come to an agreement, or equally by the fear of Blair and co of the outcome,
which will surely see a further polarisation, and a strengthening not only of
Sinn Fein but also of the hard-line anti-agreement elements of unionism. In the
absence of a party of Labour this election will effectively be a sectarian head
count. There will be a battle between Sinn Fein and the SDLP on the one hand,
and between the UUP and the DUP on the other, to determine which is the largest
party on either side of the divide. Sinn Fein may well emerge as the largest
nationalist party. Even if the UUP stay ahead of the DUP, the new UUP Assembly
grouping will be much more anti-Agreement than the old. Within unionism the
overall balance will swing strongly against the Agreement." (March 18, 2003)
Similarly in October 2002 we wrote,
"John Reid, the Northern Ireland Secretary, hopes that planned elections to
the assembly next May will still go ahead. It is hard to see how you can hold
elections for institutions that don’t exist! If elections were held in the
present climate, no doubt there would be a further polarisation, with growing
support for the Democratic Unionists and Sinn Fein at the expense of the UUP and
the SDLP. How this would help matters is hard to imagine. Even then new
temporary agreements are always possible, though far less likely, yet as we have
always explained, temporary agreement or not, none of the daily problems of
ordinary Catholic or Protestant workers would be addressed. Such unstable
agreements will inevitably break down.
"The sectarian politicians will not negotiate themselves out of existence.
The workers of all backgrounds cannot wait for new negotiations to drag out and
slther back to square one again, while sectarian killing fills the vacuum. There
is only one force capable of securing a lasting peace, only one force capable of
defeating sectarianism and protecting all communities from attack. There is obly
one force capable of taking on and defeating the source of all these problems – the capitalist system
– and that is the united action of the working
class. The working class and its organisations, beginning with the trade
unions must intervene to take matters into their own hands." (October 22, 2002)
The decisive feature of politics in the north of Ireland remains the absence
of a party of the working class. While this continues to be the case all
elections represent little more than ‘a sectarian head count.’ Meanwhile
jobs continue to be destroyed along with vital services. Nothing is done to
resolve the crisis in health or housing.
Disillusioned with the UUP and the failure of the assembly many from the
Protestant community will have stayed at home whilst others will have switched
in frustration to the DUP.
Meanwhile in the Catholic communities illusions remain high – or more
accurately all hopes have been pinned on this agreement, and Sinn Fein’s
part in it, improving their lot.
There is no party in the six counties able to address itself to these
problems from a class point of view. There were some ‘socialist’ candidates
in these elections but they received derisory votes. This would not matter if
they had at least advanced bold socialist ideas and attracted towards
themselves a new layer of workers and youth. In other words, had they used the
elections as a platform to advance a bold revolutionary socialist programme. Or
had they at least stood to publicise an appeal to the unions to set up a
non-sectarian party of Labour. In other words, participating in the election not
so much to win seats as to raise the banner of socialism. Not watering down
policies in order not to frighten people off, but above all to raise the need
for workers’ unity to cut across sectarianism.
If the only solution to the problems of Ireland is the creation of a workers’
republic, then it is abc to point out that the most vital and urgent task is the
building of workers unity. This is not easy and could hardly be achieved
overnight. Nonetheless surely socialists should take every opportunity,
including participating in elections, to raise the banner of workers unity, to
raise the idea of socialism from behind the screen of sectarianism.
Once again the potential for that unity was demonstrated at the magnificent
anti-war demos and in the struggles of the trade unions in the past twelve
months. All those who have argued that workers’ unity is impossible or utopian
have been proven wrong on many occasions in the past, and will be proven wrong
again. In fact what has been proven to be utopian is the idea that any one of
the problems facing Irish workers can be solved by sectarian parties, by
Stormont, or by any government or body within the confines of the capitalist
system. What is utopian now is to continue to believe that Stormont can play any
role in solving any of the problems facing working class people in the six
counties.
The hardliners, who have been gaining the upper hand within Unionism for some
time, want a return to the idea of a Protestant Parliament for a Protestant
people. The victory of the DUP means a crisis within unionism, beginning with
the UUP. The DUP too will be under pressure to make compromises. Yet neither
offer any vision of hope for the future for Protestant workers and their
families.
A year ago we reported a poll in the Belfast Telegraph found that support for
Stormont had fallen significantly, especially among Protestants, since its
suspension: "But the key question in this poll was this: Do you want the
agreement to work? Overwhelmingly, the answer was yes: 92% among Catholics, 60%
among Protestants, 75% overall. That is the lowest it has been in four years. A
new election if it were to take place would see a further strengthening of the
hard-line elements within Unionism. Meanwhile the nationalists have cruelly
raised illusions, demonstrated in these statistics, which will inevitably be
dashed against the rocks of Stormont’s failure – either its failure to meet,
or if it does meet its failure to solve a single one of their problems."
A majority of the population voted for the creation of the assembly. That is
not a surprise; as we have already explained it was sold as peace to a
population weary of sectarian killing. After the horrors of the last three
decades, the majority of people in the North want peace. Of course! Who does not
want peace? But the question is: how do we get it? How is a genuine and lasting
peace to be achieved? The only way to get peace is by dealing with the real
problems facing the people in their everyday lives. This is the only way to
tackle the social roots of sectarianism. That means fighting against
privatisation, fighting for better pay, better housing and against job cuts.
There was nothing in the Good Friday Agreement that could achieve any of
these aims, in fact there was nothing progressive in it at all, and we did not
support it, although it got a majority in the referendum. We were in a minority,
but we told the truth. Today too, we must honestly say to the people of the six
counties: this deal did not solve your problems, nor will any new version. Blair
and Ahern are adamant that despite the vote for the DUP there will be no
renegotiation. No doubt a new game of semantics will now ensue in which some
kind of ‘review’ of at least some of the details of the agreement, its
implementation rather than its content, will be offered. This will be paraded as
a new step forward and new talks will follow that can drag on and on and on. In
any case if the present deal is resurrected in any form it will not be able to
solve anything.
The failure of Stormont is proof once again that British imperialism cannot
solve the crisis it has created. They – along with the supporters of the
agreement in the leadership of the establishment parties – are now scurrying
around like all the king’s horses and all the king’s men trying to find a
way to put Humpty together again. Even if they do cobble together new temporary
agreements between sectarian parties, this will offer no solution to the
problems of the working class. Such unstable agreements will inevitably break
down. The sectarian politicians will not negotiate themselves out of existence.
For now the DUP are able to return to their favourite pastime – talks about
talks. They will be under pressure to do a deal with Sinn Fein. Even if this
were possible, no such deal would have anything to offer workers from any
background. But such a deal is hardly likely. With the British and Irish
governments refusing to renegotiate we are left with a stalemate. Direct rule
from Westminster will continue whilst like the three wise monkeys, the leaders of
the pro-agreement parties, will continue with the pretence that the agreement
remains intact. The current crisis within unionism will be mirrored by a crisis
in the nationalist parties, the SDLP having lost their predominance to Sinn
Fein, and Sinn Fein themselves because their strategy of power sharing is now
left suspended in mid-air.
The key to the situation remains the fact that there is no mass party that
represents the independent interests of working class and young people in
Northern Ireland. The main Assembly parties may squabble and argue on sectarian
issues but they have a lot in common when it comes to social and economic
issues. None of them are prepared to challenge the profit system, they are all
firmly wedded to the continuation of capitalism. Trade unionists in threatened
workplaces, in the fire service, teachers, nurses, public and private sector
workers in general, were not represented in these elections. An independent
party of ordinary working people, based on the trade unions, with a socialist
programme to transform society is what is required. Trade unionists from all
backgrounds should push their own unions to participate in a conference of
Labour, with links to both British Labour and the Irish Labour Party, on a
non-sectarian basis to begin the process of setting up a real Labour Party in
the north, to represent the interests of ordinary workers. Such a party could
gain an enormous echo and begin to cut the ground from under the feet of all the
sectarian parties.
We repeat again, the working class and its organisations, beginning with
the trade unions must intervene to take matters into their own hands. That
is the urgent task of the hour.
These elections only confirm the impotence of British imperialism to repair
the historic damage it has done in tearing Ireland apart and, at the same time,
the crises within both unionism and republicanism. None of the establishment
parties can do anything for the constituencies they claim to represent. Those
unionist politicians who trade on the fear of ‘too many concessions being made
to the republicans’ have nothing to say to Protestant workers about defending
their jobs or improving their services. That would require a struggle against
capitalism and for socialism in Ireland and internationally. Meanwhile those
republican leaders who continue to sow illusions that the problems of Catholic
workers can be solved by sharing office with the leaders of other sectarian
parties in the devolved management of capitalism, those who argue that ‘labour
should wait’, have only led to a new impasse. In fact, as we have consistently
argued, all roads lead to impasse – all roads except one that is, the struggle
for a Workers’ Republic, the struggle for a socialist Ireland.
In the long run without the intervention of the working class there will be a
new descent into chaos and violence. Under modern conditions there can be no
solution anywhere to the national problem within capitalism. We have entered a
new period in world history dominated by wars, revolutions and
counter-revolutions. Ireland will not be immune from this turbulence. The Irish
working class will take their rightful place in the struggle for socialism in
the coming years. United by the need to struggle over social and political
questions, the working class alone can provide the only realistic lasting peace
in a Workers’ Republic, a Socialist united Ireland linked by a free and
voluntary federation to a Socialist Britain and a Socialist United States of
Europe.
