In Southern Ireland, the economic miracle is well and truly
over. As we have predicted and explained for some time now, the Celtic Tiger
phenomenon, did not mean that capitalism had solved any of its contradictions.
On the contrary the boom in the south was based on an increased intensification
of the exploitation of labour through a series of so-called social partnership
deals, and a heavy reliance on the world market. As the world market dips into
recession and drags the southern economy along with it the bosses intend to turn
the screw even tighter on the working class in an attempt to maintain their
profits.
In our previous article on the Celtic Tiger economy we explained how
the
share of capital had risen at the expense of the working class over the
last
decade, specifically how profits had grown in direct relation with an
attack on
workers’ wages and hours. That process has continued unabated over the
last
twelve months. There has been no respite in capitalism’s efforts to
squeeze
more profits out of our labour; in the context of a declining world
market the
only road open to the bosses to protect their profits will be a further
assault
on workers living standards and working conditions. That is the real
meaning of "Sustaining Progress", more accurately titled Sustaining
Profits – the
latest social partnership deal to be put to the unions by the
government and the
employers.
In 2000, Gross National Product grew by 8.7%; but the estimate for 2002 is
just 1.2%! Such a dramatic downturn in the economy is bound to have a profound
effect on all aspects of Irish society. The sharpest expression of these changes
has been seen already in the steep decline in the government’s finances. As a
result, Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats have launched a series of
attacks on the working class through cutbacks and proposals for widespread
privatisation in the public sector. In short the government has embarked on a
new offensive against the working class.
The myth of social partnership
Ahern and his government appear to be full of confidence. They are taking
comfort from the fact that the official opposition are ineffectual and in a
shambles. The government also believes that they have the measure of other
opposition forces, i.e. the trade unions. The leadership of the unions are as
keen as ever to sign up to yet more disastrous social partnership. However, the
government will be making a big mistake indeed if they confuse the leaders of
the unions with the mood and outlook of the rank and file. Beneath the calm
exterior of the leadership’s class collaboration is a burning discontent on
the poart of workers being asked to sacrifice once again in the interests of the
bosses’ profits.
The government are moving swiftly to implement these attacks in order to take
advantage of the weak opposition and delude themselves that they will be able to
recover from any political fall out in time to fight the next election against
the backdrop of a recovering economy. That is a pipedream. At the same time,
Bertie Ahern and Mary Harney have no real understanding of the depth of the
anger and disgust that has accumulated beneath the outwardly calm surface of
Irish society. The list of their proposed attacks on wages and public services
reads like a serious threat to workers all over Ireland. At the same time, their
offensive is not only on the economic front, they are also moving to restrict
democratic and political rights in a number of very important areas and enhance
the autocratic powers of the state.
Harney has proposed new restrictions on immigration. Her claim that
restricting work permits will defend Irish jobs is laughable. The ruling from
the Supreme Court denying immigrant or refugee families who have an Irish born
child the automatic right of residency, is a significant weapon that the
establishment will use in the future. In the context of an economic crisis, the
establishment parties will use the divide and rule tactic, perfected in Ireland
over generations, to scapegoat immigrants for rising unemployment and public
spending cuts – the real blame for which lies at the door of the crisis of the
profit system.
In February, the Garda Special Forces were deployed on the streets of
Limerick and the army was sent into Shannon Airport. These two events tell us a
great deal about the intentions of the ruling class in the next period. The feud
between rival gangs in Limerick and the so-called "dangers" posed by
the incidents at Shannon Airport are now being used by the government to excuse
these unprecedented measures.
The Irish Army is now in effect protecting the transfer of US troops to the
Gulf for the war against Iraq! While it is very unlikely that the state will try
to repress the anti war movement yet, these developments are part of a trend by
the state over the last couple of years to take a more repressive approach to
workers and political activists. They are also proposing new restrictions on the
Freedom of Information Act.
The weakness of the government
These attacks on democracy, and the use of the armed forces are not, as one
might think at first sight, indications that this is a strong government
confidently moving forward. The reality is the opposite. They are actually in a
very weak position. At this stage, they are able to get away with their attacks,
above all because of the lack of a strong political alternative, which
represents working class people. However, the change in the economic situation,
and in a more immediate sense the war on Iraq, is already creating the
conditions in which all that could be changed.
The Irish economy is in a very weak position. Gross Domestic Product, the
value of all goods and services produced in Ireland may have grown by 5% – 6% in
2002, however, the Gross National Product (GNP) grew by just 1.2%. This is a
more important indicator of the situation because it takes into account money
transferred into and out of the country. Given that the multinational
corporations repatriate a huge amount of profits, this figure provides us with a
truer picture of the wealth in the country. The latest figures from the Central
Statistics Office show that GNP for the third quarter of last year actually
declined compared to the same quarter in 2001. If that trend continues it would
mean that the domestically owned economy had slipped into recession, which would
be a dramatic change after years of substantial growth. This would mainly
indicate the decline in the key markets to which Irish companies export,
international overcapacity and overproduction which is at the core of capitalism’s
crisis. It also reflects the increasing cost of Irish exports due to the
increase in the value of the euro. The single currency has not proved to be the
panacea that was claimed.
Ireland has not been immune to the growth in credit, which has fuelled the
continuation of the boom in the last period. Consumer spending and the
continuing growth in credit for mortgages are playing an important role in the
economy. However, both of these would be cut across quickly if there were a
sustained loss in jobs. The number of job losses has been growing consistently
over the last twelve months. Given the state of the world economy, and
especially with the US sliding into a new recession, this is likely to intensify
over the next year with profound consequences for the Irish economy and Irish
society.
This is the background against which the new social partnership deal must be
analysed. Even if Sustaining Progress is endorsed, the limited, and mean pay
rises proposed would place an ailing economy under pressure. The bosses will try
to go back on it at the earliest opportunity. A 7% pay rise over 18 months in
the private sector is below inflation and will only be accepted by the majority
of workers reluctantly. Nevertheless the bosses will now be claiming that they
cannot afford even this measly increase.
In addition, the deal contains binding arbitration in order to
attempt to
curtail the ability of workers to force employers to pay up. In the new
economic recession that is developing, social partnership – which
served to prevent workers struggling for a decent share of increased
wealth
during the boom – will not be able to prevent workers taking action to
defend
jobs, wages and working conditions.
Apparently knowing no shame, the leadership of the Irish Congress of Trade
Unions (ICTU) decided to ballot its affiliates on the new social partnership
agreement, "Sustaining Progress", without giving any recommendation.
This is generally known as leading from the rear. For several years now they
have presented each new agreement with the government and the employers as a
triumph for their negotiating skills, and for the concept of social partnership.
However in reality this policy has amounted to nothing new at all, simply old
fashioned class collaboration, whereby workers were given a few crumbs from the
ever-expanding cake of the capitalist’s wealth.
When ICTU entered the latest partnership talks, its stated agenda among other
things included union recognition, and above inflation pay increases. What have
they achieved? The bosses’ organisation, IBEC, spell out the truth in a
newsletter to its members, " there is no change in the principle of
trade union recognition: no company can be forced to statutorily recognise a
union".
The pay rises on offer, headlined at 7 percent, will, in reality, fall below
inflation, and rather than the promised phased catching up of public sector
wages, the "deal" represents a wholesale attack on the wages and conditions
of workers in the public sector. The "progress" which the government and the
bosses wish to "sustain" includes more work for teachers, performance
management systems to prepare the ground for performance related pay, and
procedures to prevent health workers from striking.
The most disturbing aspect of the new deal however is the proposal to
introduce binding arbitration. The deal states that the vast majority of
industrial relations issues will now be subject to binding arbitration. In the
private sector, the Labour Court and in the public sector an ad-hoc arbitration
board will issue recommendations on industrial relations issues. This procedure
effectively blocks any trade union from taking industrial action to further
their members’ interests.
If the trade union leaders explained this to the rank and file the anger they
already feel at having been cheated for the last decade could be turned into
effective militant action to defeat these attacks. Social partnership has once
again failed to deliver anything for workers. It is and always has been a social
con trick. Even if this new deal is passed it won’t mean an easy ride for the
government and their social partners at the head of ICTU. The new economic
climate will see an assault on jobs; wages, working conditions and union rights
and workers will organise to defend themselves.
The main political parties are now focused on the local elections due in the
summer of 2004. Most of them are assuming that there will not be a general
election before then. However, that is a pretty big assumption, a lot can happen
before then. Above all the anger that has built up over the years of the
"Celtic Tiger" must burst through the surface sooner or later and a
series of struggles by workers could fundamentally undermine this government,
who have a weak base of support and an early election could be forced upon them.
For all the efforts of the trade union leaders to prevent it, the next period in
Ireland will see an explosion of the class struggle, on the industrial and the
political front.
No to Sustaining Progress (more accurately titled
Sustaining Profits)
No pay freeze in the public sector
No to Compulsory arbitration – defend the right to strike
No to the Social con trick. For militant action to defend jobs, wages and trade
union rights,
For a Socialist United Ireland linked by a voluntary federation to a socialist
Britain and a Socialist United States of Europe.
