Floods, Foot and Mouth and hundreds of thousands of public sector workers balloting for industrial action over pay, not perhaps the sort of run up to the party conference that Gordon Brown had hoped for. But despite all this the Labour Party is ahead in the polls bolstered by the effect of the "Brown Bounce".

There are a few reasons for this, not least the fact that Tony Blair was seriously discredited particularly by the war and the fact that the Tories seem utterly incapable of putting together a coherent opposition. John Redwood's proposal to abolish inheritance tax only serves to demonstrate the tensions between the "New Tory" cyclists and the rabid right wing sections.

But can we be confident that Labour can beat the Tories in a "snap" election, and just as importantly is there any evidence that Brown will be more convincing to working class voters who have stayed at home in droves in the past period?

From an economic point of view there are some dark clouds on the horizon. The recent instability in the financial markets reflects a much greater and more significant malaise in the US housing market, threatening the property price boom and raising the prospect of still higher interest rates to control credit. Despite the apparent stability of the British economy during the Labour Government, the next period will be markedly different and will inevitably impact dramatically on working people.

At the same time, constant restructuring, attacks on pensions, privatisation and financial squeeze on the public sector are leading to a highly volatile situation. Local government and the NHS workers are on a collision caused with the government over pay and given the cuts in the fire service and other parts of the public sector it is quite possible that the government could face a generalised public sector strike movement involving two or three million workers.

Hardly a day goes by without the news of another series of explosions in Iraq or attacks in Afghanistan. British troops in Iraq are now restricted to two bases, one of which they are intending to leave and the head of the army is worried about British Forces being overstretched.

Further destabilisation

The invasion of Iraq has proven to be a complete disaster, which could still see the break up of the country and a further destabilisation of the Middle East. There is some evidence that Gordon Brown has tried to distance himself from the Bush administration, but that isn't enough. The only way to send a clear message to Bush is complete and immediate withdrawal of British troops. The alternative is more attrition, more atrocities and inevitable defeat.

The Cash for Honours enquiry, while absolving the party leadership of having broken the law, illustrated the extent to which the group around Tony Blair was reliant on rich backers and big business. It also may explain the ongoing struggle to break the trade union link. We need to fight to preserve Labour's link with the unions, and to ensure that it remains the political expression of the organised working class. More than that, the links to big business illustrate very clearly the need for rank and file party members and trade unionists to reclaim the party and fight to regain democratic reforms inside it. 

Inside the Labour movement it is clear that the turn to the right that merely accelerated during the Blair years has to a large extent run its course. The campaign around John McDonnell's candidature was significant in providing a pole of attraction for many party members and trade unionists who while sick of Blair, maybe felt isolated or disenfranchised by the party in the past. Most significantly the big trade union leaders are being pushed kicking and screaming into opposition. This is particularly the case with UNISON whose leadership have consistently tried to "hold the line", often at the expense of the membership. With ballots on the cardsin both Local Government and the NHS virtually simultaneously that cosy relationship is under threat.

The party conference will cheer the new leader and will no doubt be quite positive at least in terms of the possibility that Labour can win the next election. However, despite the stage managing of conference and the restricted character of the debates, it is likely that some of the opposition to the current policy and programme of the government will find its way onto the floor of conference.

To guarantee a Labour victory, it will be insufficient to merely tinker at the edges, making superficial changes to re-brand the party around a new leader. The crisis of reformism reflects the crisis of capitalism.