The picture emerging in the results from yesterday’s Irish General Election is becoming clearer as the evening goes on. The outcome represents an historic defeat for Fianna Fáil, the main bourgeois party in the state. FF have been in power for 61 of the last 79 years. They have been the largest single party in Dáil Éireann since 1932 until... today. Although only around a third of seats have been announced it is clear that FF are destined to come in third place not far ahead of SF. Fine Gael will become the biggest party for the first time although they will still fall short of an overall majority. Labour however has made the biggest strides forward with around 20% of first preference votes. This is double what the party achieved in 2007.

Together with some successes for well known left candidates the Labour vote represents a significant shift to the left among the working class. The situation is more pronounced in Dublin where Labour came out as the biggest party. This represents the political effect of the economic crisis and the movements of the working class over the last two years. The impasse of capitalism internationally is first and foremost a crisis of the bourgeois and their political representatives. “The Soldiers of Destiny” are in a cul de sac.

The most likely outcome of the election will be a FG/Labour coalition. Paddy Power are offering odds of 1/33 on an alliance between the two parties. But that does not need to be the outcome. Fightback is wholly opposed to a coalition since this would be dominated by the bourgeois Fine Gael Party. Enda Kenny’s programme differs little in reality from that of Fianna Fáil. An FG/Labour coalition would be the worst form of popular front government. The bourgeois will get far more out of a coalition with Labour than workers will get out of having a handful of Labour ministers. The Labour leaders will come under enormous pressure as the economic crisis drags on.

We will publish a more in depth analysis once the full election results are in. At the time of writing the state of the Parties is:

Fine Gael                                                27 seats 36.1% +8.8%

Labour Party                                           17          19.4     +9.3%

Fianna Fáil                                                5         17.4     -24.1%

Independent                                           6            12.6      +6.8%

Sinn Féin                                                 5           9.9      +3.0%

Green Party                                             0           1.8       -2.8%

Socialist Party                                           2         1.2      +0.6%