After a week long strike that saw some 240 sites being picket by TEEU members the union has instructed the 10,500 strikers to return to work, following the decision of the Labour Court to recommend a 4.9% deal – to be paid in two installments; 2.5% in September and 2.4% in January.

But, it would be a mistake to suggest that the dispute is over and done with. The reality is that the non-binding decision of the Labour Court needs to be accepted by the two employers’ federations (the ECA and the AECI) signed up to the negotiating process. Furthermore a rival employer’s federation which is not part of the Registered Employment Agreement has threatened a legal challenge to the proceedings.

The TEEU executive meets on Thursday and it is likely that they will vote to reactivate the strike after the two week building workers’ holiday, in the event of one or other of the employers’ federations rejecting the deal. The union also has the possibility of taking the dispute to ICTU with a view to escalating any new stage in the dispute to include other sections of workers at the sites.

So, the ball is very definitely back in the employers’ court. There are indications that the employers are divided on the issue and some are extremely unhappy, in fact deeply dismayed, The Irish Times of July 12^th gave vent to some of their opinions:

“The Electrical Contractors’ Association (ECA), which represents about 50 major contractors will meet tomorrow to decide on the court’s non-binding proposal that 10,500 electricians receive the 2.5 per cent increase from September 1st and another 2.4 per cent on January 1st, 2010.

“Chris Lundy of the Association of Electrical Contractors of Ireland (AECI) said it will ballot its members. He said the outcome ‘might be a surprise’, because even the executive was divided 50:50 on the issue.

“The National Electrical Contractors of Ireland (NECI), a breakaway employers’ group which is not part of the negotiating process, said it was ‘in complete dismay of the Labour Court’s recommendations’.”

Chief executive Denis Judge, said that, “in a judgment on February 29th, 2009, after the longest hearing ever held in the LC, the Labour Court rejected a proposed increase of €1.05.” The economy had substantially worsened since then, he said but now “the Labour Court has recommended a 4.9% increase”.

The position facing the union is complex. Deflation stands at about 5% per annum at the moment, while sections of the employers have been seeking a 10% cut in wages. The Labour Court has accepted the 4.9% increase, which is a shift from the situation in February, and the employers have to respond.

Under these conditions a 4.9% increase would be at least a partial victory, but there is no guarantee that the employers, particularly the small employers will accept the deal, as such the union either has to give in, which seems unlikely or more likely to reopen the dispute and seek the support of other unions to escalate it.

The support for the union’s action seems to have been solid, which means that the engineering employers could blunder into a protracted and bitter action. This would have a dramatic effect on the Irish working class as a whole and could – as in the case of the Waterford Crystal occupation, which helped spark the Visteon occupation in Belfast ‑ have an effect North of the border as well.

There are enormous pressures on workers across the state to accept pay cuts and short time working in many industries. A successful outcome to the electrician’s action would represent an important victory for all workers. But this won’t drop from the sky; it will require the conscious support and active solidarity of the entire Labour and Trade union movement.

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