The Soldiers of Destiny are floundering out to sea far from the coast of Donegal; or at least they don’t seem to be in the same place as the voters. A report in the Irish Times today quotes a RedC poll carried out on behalf of Paddy Power which indicates that FF support in Donegal South West has collapsed from 51% to around 19% since 2007. FG have risen from 23% to 25% while Labour have risen from 3% in the last General Election to 14%. But the likely winner of the by election on November 29th is Pearse Doherty of Sinn Féin who stands on 40%.

Time and tide are well known for not waiting for any man. While the European Commission have ostensibly been trying to pour oil on the disturbed waters at Leinster House; workers across the whole of Ireland have been looking on with dismay. The government seem to have completely lost their way and the last couple of days have seen Brian Lenihan performing some strange dance of the seven veils, trying to hide the mess that the Irish bourgeois have landed the state into.

Of course Brian Lenihan is confident for the future and keen to get his budget in place, everything is fine and dandy; grand indeed. But as one commentator remarked on RTÉ earlier today, the only people that could possibly believe that are those who don’t read the papers, watch the TV, listen to the radio, talk to other people or actually leave their houses.

The pantomime is accentuated by the fact that one of the reasons that Lenihan is talking such nonsense is that he is terrified that the speculators will spot that the Irish economy is in meltdown and that it threatens to bring down the whole house of cards in the euro zone. But the key thing at present is the fact that the weak link in the chain... and it is a particularly flimsy chain at that is that the coalition has a wafer thin majority. There are now 4 by elections pending and at least one FF TD says he will vote against the government if they cut pensions in the budget.

The IMF and the EU are banging on the door but now we hear that British Tories are willing to jump in to save Ireland.... “by their friends shall ye know them”.

The game is up and the people of Donegal South West know it. If SF win and Labour comes second with a big vote this by election will represent a big shift underlining the sort of opinion poll figures that Labour has had recently. Gilmore and the party leadership don’t have a clear idea of where they are going and don’t have a socialist position but despite this Labour will make huge gains in the next election.

FF are marooned without a paddle and drifting slowly into the middle of nowhere. But there is more pain to come for us and them before they eventually crash into Rockall in the cold waters of the North Atlantic.