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Brian Cowen survived a confidence vote
in the Dail on Wednesday by 5 votes and the day after it was
announced that Enda Kenny had won a confidence vote sparked by
dissatisfaction on the FG front bench by a similar (supposedly secret)
margin. But why is it that the leaders of the two long established
bourgeois parties in the state have reached such an impasse at the same
time? The answer is clear the economy is in crisis and Labour has
overtaken FG in the polls.
It is fairly clear why Brian
Cowen is in trouble, the collapse in the banks, the attacks on the
public sector workers wages, the pension levy, An Bord Snip and the
general crisis in the economy stack up as a fairly clear indictment of
the “thoroughbreds” in the FF/ Green coalition. On top of that the very
fact that the government has moved heaven and earth to prevent the three
by elections taking place reveals that even if the TD’s have a feint
majority with confidence in the Taoiseach, then the same can’t be said
of the man himself.
But why is Enda Kenny in
trouble? The trigger for the confidence vote lies in the poor showing of
the FG in the recent opinion polls. Labour was reported to be ahead on
32 % with FG on 28% and the FF on 17% in the Irish Times/IPSOS-MRBI poll
released on 10th June.
It should come
as no surprise to Irish workers that the polls were the trigger for the
confidence vote for Kenny. After all, there seems to be no fundamental
political differences between Kenny and Bruton who was sacked by the
Fine Gael leader earlier this week.
Indeed we would
argue that there is ultimately no radical political difference between
the political programme of Fine Gael and that of Fianna Fáil. These are
two right wing pro bourgeois parties who are no friends of the Irish
working class at all. It should be clear to active workers that the FG
don’t have a solution to the capitalist crisis that is playing out in
Ireland and internationally, other than to attack the working class.
What is more important from our point of view is; what are the factors
that have pushed Labour into first place in the polls?
The rise of
Labour in the opinion polls has been dramatic, but even as long ago as
last year’s Euro and Council elections it was clear that there has been a
swing to the left among the working class, particularly in Dublin. See http://ireland.marxist.com/ireland/politics/7576-ireland-after-the-elections-historical-opportunity-for-the-left-
for our analysis at the time. We explained at
the time that the swing to Labour was a reflection of the crisis. That
process has continued since; reflecting the conclusions workers are
drawing from the events in the state and internationally.
We have
consistently argued that when the workers move politically they turn in
the first instance towards their traditional organisations; that is
clearly what has happened. The conclusion of the Croke Park deal this
week is likely to reinforce that process. The trade union leaders have
temporarily managed to reach an accord with the state. We feel that will
inevitably break down on the basis of the instability in the economy
here and internationally and the political pressure on the FF to attack
the working class. Workers will be forced to move onto the political
front.
Eamon Gilmore
has been swimming with the stream for some time now; he has been buoyed
up by the swing to Labour. But in all this time he has consistently
failed to offer a clear class position. He has tacked to the left of the
Fine Gael and has attempted to reflect some of the anger from below,
even calling for the temporary nationalisation of the banks, but when a
clear call has been needed he has refused to commit himself, as in the
case of the Croke Park Deal.
We have
consistently argued that Labour needs a socialist programme if it is to
win the confidence of the majority of workers as we explained in this
recent article:
http://ireland.marxist.com/ireland/politics/7760-gilmore-rides-high-in-the-polls-but-labour-needs-a-socialist-programme
The crisis in
the state demonstrates the bankruptcy of capitalism in this island and
internationally. Neither Kenny or Bruton can offer an alternative; they
are too closely tied in with the bourgeois, which is determined to make
the working class pay for the crisis. Labour needs to challenge not only
the politics of Cowen and Lenihan, but the handful of bankers and
capitalists that pull their strings. To do this Labour needs to provide a
socialist alternative to the bankruptcy of capitalism. We need a
majority Labour Government with a socialist programme, a coalition with
Fine Gael would tie the party to the apron strings of Enda Kenny’s
motley crew.
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Defend wages, jobs and services
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No coalition with Fine Gael
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For a majority Labour Government with a socialist
programme
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