Vince Cable probably didn’t expect to get rapturous applause at the GMB conference this week. He had come to conference with a very clear intention, to make a veiled threat to the leaders of the GMB and indirectly UNISON, UNITE, PCS, the NUT, UCU and the NASUWT amongst others. The Con Dem government have gambled heavily that they will get away with their austerity programme.

In trying to push 25% cuts through local government over the next four years they’ve used the economic equivalent of “shock and awe tactics” to try and numb the Labour Movement and particularly the trade union leaders. However, far from cowing the working class they have managed to detonate the biggest student movement in decades.  But not only that, they have managed to create a massive wave of opposition from the public sector workers. There were over 500,000 people on the demonstration on March 26th many of them from the GMB. So Vince’s carefully prepared remarks will have had a much wider and more critical audience than he might have hoped.

Delegates to the GMB’s annual conference heckled and slow-clapped Vince Cable on Monday as the business secretary warned the union movement that mass strikes would prompt pressure within government for tougher industrial laws.

The cold welcome came despite Mr Cable’s carefully calibrated argument that the case for changing strike laws was “not compelling” – for now.
The business secretary struck a sympathetic note, telling the GMB audience that industrial disruption was at its lowest level since 1933.
Playing the unions’ critical friend, Mr Cable warned that if there was widespread disruption the government would be forced to act.
“We are undoubtedly entering a difficult period. Cool heads will be required all round,” he said. (Financial Times online 6/6/2011)

The Government have already come under pressure from the CBI to agree to bring in stricter anti trade union laws. Boris Johnson has called for support for the CBI argument that the law should be changed to prevent strike action unless 40% of workers vote in a strike ballot. There are also plans to make it more difficult to get trade union recognition in smaller firms and proposals to cut back on Trade Union facility time. The mood among workers has changed radically since the dark days of the economic crash. There is a lot of anger and fear among the working class. The bosses and the government are well aware of this and they are keen to apply pressure to the trade union leaders to take the movement into a safer channel.

But the problem for the bosses is that the logic of the capitalist system means that they have no alternative but to attack working people. That leaves the Lib Dems and the Tories with no option but to try and justify themselves:

Mr Cable was forced onto the defensive in the face of angry outbursts from several GMB members, claiming that he was trying to manage the interests of business and workers.
Outlining his "vision" for next five years, the Business Secretary insisted he wanted "a mature relationship" with the trade union movement.
"Trade unions did not cause the crisis," admitted Mr Cable.
But he went on to confirm that public-sector workers would have to pay for the economic crisis with budget cuts and pay freezes.
"Given the severity of our problems, it will be a difficult period," he said.
"Like it or not, fiscal policy has to remain tight for the foreseeable future."
Mr Cable reeled off the Con-Dems' familiar discredited assertions that the private sector would expand to replace the jobs lost in the public sector.
He said to boos and jeers: "We have to rebalance the economy using more private investment and enlightened forward-looking companies "
Moving to the contentious issue of industrial relations, Mr Cable attempted to divide the trade union movement between the "usual suspects who will call for a general strike" and those "with cool heads." (Morning Star On Line 6/6/2011)

Unfortunately for Vince Cable, private investment and forward looking companies are a bit thin on the ground in Britain today. Certainly the suggestion that the “private sector would expand to replace the jobs lost in the public sector” will be seen as a clear signal for more outsourcing, so called commissioning and downright old fashioned privatisation in local government and the health service. The experience of the last 30 or more years in the public sector is that private companies have been given an inch and have taken a mile. They have slashed wages and cut terms and conditions. There is after all only one way to make profit out of public services.

But there are limits to what workers can take and the risk for the government and the bosses is that the fight against the cuts is likely to escalate over the next period as the Tories seem intent on attacking public sector pensions:

Ministers do not want to be accused of provoking confrontation, however, despite making private preparations for widespread strikes.
Union unhappiness is coalescing around the issue of pension reform, with the government trying to implement a sharp rise in personal contributions from public sector workers.Fortnightly talks to resolve the issue have been taking place between Danny Alexander, chief secretary to the Treasury, and Francis Maude, the minister for the Cabinet Office, with union chiefs led by Brendan Barber of the TUC and Dave Prentis of Unison. Mr Cable’s speech is part of a “carrot and stick” approach, according to one political insider. If an attempt to reach a national agreement on public pensions collapses, it could galvanise the unions into action. One union leader said: “Pensions is the only thing likely to unite people. Cuts in Birmingham may unite the GMB, Unison and Unite in Birmingham but not in Liverpool or elsewhere.”(Financial Times OnLine 6/6/2011)

The response from the Trade Unions has been mixed so far in respect of pensions. The PCS, NUT, UCU, ATL and NAHT will be striking on June 30th while the GMB and UNISON are arguing that they need to try and get something out of ongoing pension negotiations. The risk for members is that the negotiations are very unlikely to end well. The Tories and Lib Dems were presented with a golden opportunity to attack pensions in the shape of the Hutton Report. The UNISON and GMB leadership are under enormous pressure from below. But likewise they are under huge pressure from the Government to give ground on pensions.

Both the GMB and UNISON have talked about taking strike action in the autumn if the government insist on making cuts to pensions, although it is likely that they will attempt to try and come to some sort of negotiated settlement. The problem for Paul Kenny and Dave Prentis is that whatever deal they come up with will be too little for the bosses and will represent a cut in pensions for their members, even if it’s dressed up as a way of getting the Government to back off on the cuts. Deals like that aren’t worth the paper they are written on because sooner or later they will break down because they don’t solve the problems of either the bosses or the workers.

There is a growing mood of opposition among the working class as shown by the students struggle and the monster demonstration on March 26th. It’s most likely that the campaigns against the cuts and particularly against pension reforms will escalate over the coming period. But to ensure that we win these battles it’s essential to have a clear and intransigent programme. That means taking a stand against all the cuts and fighting to ensure that attempts at privatisation and so called “reform” are confronted and kicked into touch. If the Tunisians and Egyptians can overthrow their hated dictators with a few weeks of revolutionary mass struggle and the Greek and Spanish workers can shake their societies to their foundations then getting shot of a bunch of Old Etonians and other assorted millionaires in the British cabinet should be a doddle.

The first steps needs to be to fight for a public sector general strike on June 30th and for the movement to push to get the TUC to take a lead and call ALL unions out for a one-day general strike which can mobilise together workers, students, pensioners and the unemployed in a day of strikes and mass action which will send a very clear message to the government and its big business backers.